despite tremendous price rises in Phoenix, all data points to prices rising more…

Phoenix inventory just dropped under 17,600 this morning. with roughly 8000 sold in the past 30 days. this is a new low for this spring, and continuing a trend of 100 less homes for sale per week.

Considering that in a normal year (been a while since we’ve had normal around here) inventory typically rises from January to April by 10 or 15%, This continued drop in inventory signals that the market is going to stay tight, with prices increasing.

And, more inventory is definitely not coming from foreclosures any time soon: there are precisely 2381 scheduled foreclosures in the next 30 days. Even as recently as a year ago, we routinely had 5000 foreclosures scheduled in the up coming 30 day period. Using historical data, 1/3 of these will actually foreclose, 1/3 cancel and 1/3 delayed into the future. So we will be seeing 50% less foreclosures then last year at this time, a reduction of about 800 distressed properties per month, and given the greatly reduced pipeline of homes in foreclosure, and notices of future foreclosure, this trend is not changing this year.

So, we have tight inventory, and much less distressed inventory coming than last year. Until prices rise enough that regular home owners are enticed to sell, or buyers quit buying, prices are going to continue to rise. The sign of that change will be rising inventory, and slowing sales, such as 4 to 6 months worth of inventory on the market, a figure we are a hell of along ways away from today.


About robertoaribas

Math professor, Realtor. 12 years of buying, selling, investing and managing rental properties. rock-climbing and salsa dancing.
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