starter home analysis

Ok, so last night I did a little bit of digging into Phoenix area housing information:

First I pulled up all of the single family homes, 3 bedroon 1.75 baths, 2 car garage, built since 1970 inside the 101 and 202 loop roads. Basically, I wanted to look at starter homes, within commute distance of Phoenix, not either obvious junk, or homes 100 miles away.

I limited the price to under $200K.

There were 581 available.

Then, I changed the search to closed in the past 30 days. 909. What? we have 2/3 a month inventory of starter homes? that is ridiculously low!

My business partner has been trying to find such a home for his buyer for several weeks, and keeps telling me that “every non junk home gets multiple offers as soon as it hits the market.” Well, seeing this data, I can see why.

Prices are just going to keep rising in Phoenix, until such a day as the supply and demand change by a ton. A balanced market needs about 4 to 6 months inventory.

The other factor, is that in each of those statistics above, roughly 30% of the listings and sales were short sale and or bank owned. With foreclosures and notice of future foreclosures plummeting by over 60% from last year, and inevitably rising values will end slow the short sales, those sources of new inventory are simply not going to exist much longer…

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About robertoaribas

Math professor, Realtor. 12 years of buying, selling, investing and managing rental properties. rock-climbing and salsa dancing. robertoaribas@gmail.com
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