Reading the Cromford Report (one of the most thorough out there in real estate)

Over the past two months, inventory has gone up by more than 3%, which itself is not so bad except that it usually drops this time of the year. Even worse, pending sales have dropped by nearly 30%. An extreme dropoff. Prices are already dropping, but price is actually a trailing indicator, supply and demand imbalance are the indicators of future price trends. It really looks bad for the rest of this year, the only wildcard would be some sudden govt. intervention.

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About robertoaribas

Math professor, Realtor. 12 years of buying, selling, investing and managing rental properties. rock-climbing and salsa dancing. robertoaribas@gmail.com
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3 Responses to Reading the Cromford Report (one of the most thorough out there in real estate)

  1. Steven says:

    Hi Rob,
    I appreciate your non-commissioned breath approach to selling real estate! It’s refreshing!!

    I’d like to buy something in AZ and use it for 6 months a year (I’m in a cold state). But in reality, I don’t “need” a home till my Son graduates in 2012 allowing me to be more mobile. My exclusive reason to buy now is to time the bottom “better”. It’s obvious to me that September will be a better time to buy than August (as an example). But what do you see Gilbert doing in 6 months when the buying season picks up?? I’m in the under $200K range (liking $150K better) and newer.

    Another though is to buy -rehab and re-sell. Then keep the one I want. I’ve done that in the boom years 10+ times. In a declining market, that is DANGEROUS and I don’t feel comfortable.

    Feel free to contact me by email.

    In April of 2009, the bottom was not over in my mind. Yet the tax credit created a sense of urgency for a year. Reality has re-set in.

    I’m thinking of the Gilbert area ($150K price range). What are the trends showing in the newer areas (South of 202)??

    • Six months from now, is very very hard to predict. Maybe the government will invent another foreclosure slowdown tactic, or credit for buyers?
      If nothing changes, I would expect prices to slide for sure through the end of the year, until at the very least the spring buying season. If next spring were a bust, all bets are off of any stability through 2011.

      I too want to begin buying. I sold many investment properties in 2005, and even sold my north Scottsdale home, as the price had doubled in a few years which seemed ridiculous. So, I would like to buy another home to live in, and several more to rent. But naturally, I want to time it as well as I can! So, rather than try to predict six months away, I think a more profitable way to look at it, is simply re-evaluate each month. If the statistical indicators show more likelihood of prices dropping, well I wait another month, and evaluate again.

      • trista says:

        sweet, i want you to be my landlord!! 😀 i have been watching the s. scottsdale/phoenix/tempe market and there have been some good deals. too bad we don’t have the income 😛 (but atleast i can stay at home with my kids!)

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